报告题目：Quantify the Coupled Ensemble Forecast Uncertainty for the Weather and Subseasonal Prediction
时间：2024年11月13日，周三下午2:30-4:00
地点：大气楼D102会议室
报告摘要：
Ensemble forecasting is one of the modern numerical weather prediction systems run in ensemble mode that generates multiple simulations with slightly different initial conditions and stochastic parameterizations during the model integration. The operational ensemble forecast systems were first implemented by ECMWF and NCEP in December 1992 respectively, but they used the different methods to generate initial perturbations which assumed the model was perfect. Later on the model uncertainties were introduced.
A forecast uncertainty can be quantified using a variety of methods, depending on the available information and the forecasting techniques used. Commonly, a probabilistic forecast is one of the main approaches to communicate the uncertainty associated with the ensemble forecast which helps users make informed decisions. The model uncertainty analysis is a fundamental methodology to diagnose model capability to present the forecast uncertainty in addition to ensemble forecasting skills. An optimum ensemble configuration, through adjusting the initial perturbations and model dynamic/physical perturbations (stochastic parameterization), can provide insight into forecast uncertainty.
Reference: Zhu et al, 2023: Quantify the Coupled GEFS Forecast Uncertainty for the Weather and Subseasonal Prediction. JGR Atmosphere. [Eos and JGR Atmosphere Editor Highlight]
报告人简介：
朱跃建，地球系统模式预报中心首席科学家，中国气象局特聘专家和国家气象中心科学主任。曾长期任职于美国国家环境模式中心并担任集合预报系统研发和应用团队的领导人，也是这一领域的国际专家，曾组织和主持多次国际会议，领导多项国际合作项目，获得多次国家和国际组织的嘉奖。作为领域专家，曾担任世界气象组织多个专家组专家和多个科学指导委员会委员。主要研究方向是预报的不确定性（围绕集合预报的初始扰动和模式扰动等一系列关键科学问题）。
欢迎老师同学踊跃参加！